In-depth Analysis Of The Yarn Raw Materials Industry in 2025 - Market Trends, Import Changes And Future Directions

Let's start with the most straightforward aspect of the price level. According to the latest data from the China-Kaoqiao Textile Index, the raw material price index for the first period in December 2025 closed at 86.18 points. Compared to the beginning of the year, it has risen by approximately 6.94%, and compared to the same period last year, it has also increased by 6.22%. This increase is not drastic, but it exhibits the typical "slow bull" characteristic - it has been climbing gently throughout the year, with almost no significant fluctuations. Looking at the various varieties, the polyester filament of different specifications performed steadily. The quotations for POY, FDY, and DTY in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region were basically within a narrow range of 6,750 yuan to 7,956 yuan per ton, without experiencing the kind of drastic fluctuations seen last year. In terms of pure cotton yarn, it increased by 1.34% in the first half of December, mainly driven by the increase in transactions in the Xiaoshao area, especially the demand for combed high-count yarn was quite strong. Recycled cellulose fiber, also known as people's cotton yarn, is also moving in the same direction, with the central price of viscose staple fiber stabilizing at around 12,700 yuan per ton. Overall, in 2025, the raw material side experienced a "slow-boiling frog" type of increase. Although each increase was not significant, the cumulative cost of replenishing stocks at the end of the year was already higher than that at the beginning of the year. For the purchasers, it is unlikely that raw material prices will fall significantly, and the stable purchase of essential goods remains a safe strategy.
Now let's look at the import yarn market. In the second half of 2025, a notable change emerged - the import of combed cotton yarn from places like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia increased significantly, especially in the range from C21S to C40S. The underlying reasons for this change are two. The first driving force is the return of the traceability requirements for export orders. As the regulatory requirements for supply chain transparency in the European and American markets have strengthened, more and more overseas buyers require that textiles must provide full-chain traceability proof from the cotton origin to the spinning factory. This has led to the re-emergence of imported combed yarn, as the yarn factories in Vietnam and India have been using non-South Xinjiang cotton such as Australian cotton and Brazilian cotton, which naturally meet the traceability requirements. The second driving force is that these countries' yarn factories themselves are also upgrading. In 2025, many large spinning enterprises in Vietnam and India increased their equipment investment, with the proportion of new ring spinning and tight spinning lines significantly increasing, and the cotton blending level has become more stable. Their combed cotton yarn has not only matched domestic first-line brands in key indicators such as strength, uniformity of hair, and CV value, but also has a certain advantage in price compared to domestic similar products. Therefore, the weaving factories and traders in the coastal areas began to accept this batch of imported combed yarn again, and the transaction activity has significantly increased.

Apart from prices and import/export data, two deep-seated structural changes emerged in 2025. These changes are likely to deepen further in 2026 and even reshape the entire industry's competitive landscape.
The first change is the comprehensive tightening of traceability requirements. According to customs data in October, China's cotton yarn imports for that month were 140,000 tons, up 9.6% from the previous month and 13.5% year-on-year. On the domestic side, large cotton mills in Xinjiang maintained an operating rate of over 90%, while large mills in Henan and Jiangsu had an average operating rate of around 70%, but small and medium-sized mills have begun to reduce their operating rates. High-count varieties, especially those with a price increase trend, have received significantly more inquiries in the market compared to ordinary varieties. This means that yarn factories that can provide a complete traceability chain will receive more order premiums in the future, while those enterprises that cannot prove the origin of the cotton may be excluded from the mainstream purchasing list even if the price is lower. Notably, since the second half of 2025, the inquiry volume for organic cotton and recycled cotton has significantly increased, and most of these orders require relevant certification certificates. This is not a temporary trend but the result of the combined effect of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism and the sustainability commitments of major brands. If yarn manufacturers engaged in foreign trade have not yet established GRS certification or organic cotton certification by now, their orders in 2026 may be even more difficult.
The second change is that the demand for green and environmentally friendly products has shifted from being an "enhancement factor" to an "entry threshold". Previously, whether there was GRS certification or organic cotton certificates was just an additional benefit, having them was better, but not having them did not affect the order acceptance. But now the situation is completely different. In 2025, many international fast fashion brands and sports brands have clearly required that all yarn suppliers in their supply chains must obtain GRS or similar certifications by 2026, otherwise they will be removed from the qualified supplier list. At the same time, some of the leading domestic e-commerce platforms have also begun to conduct qualification reviews for labels such as "environmentally friendly" and "recycled" on textiles. This green wave has spread from Europe and the United States to the domestic market, and it is spreading faster than expected. It can be predicted that in 2026, the supply-demand gap for recycled polyester yarn, recycled cotton yarn, and organic cotton yarn will further expand, and the enterprises that complete the certification first will occupy a favorable position in the competition.

Based on the above analysis, for those in the yarn industry, here are some specific suggestions for reference. First, in terms of raw material procurement strategy, given the overall slow bull market throughout the year, there is no need to wait for a sharp decline to replenish stocks. It is sufficient to purchase in batches according to actual demand, with a focus on combed high-count and functional varieties. Second, regarding imported yarns, the Australian cotton combed yarns from Vietnam and Indonesia are currently the preferred high-quality choice for export orders. It is advisable to increase the proportion of stockpiling appropriately; low-count air-jet spun yarns should be avoided as much as possible. Third, it is essential to complete relevant certifications such as GRS and OCS as soon as possible. Even if there is an initial investment of some costs, it is better than being rejected by customers in the future. Fourth, for small and medium-sized yarn factories and traders with tight capital flow, there may be inventory clearance actions at the end of the year. This is precisely an opportunity to pick up bargains - but only for those with high specifications, package bleaching, and formal certifications. Low-specification uncertified products should not be taken on easily, as the downstream market no longer accepts such products.